DB Sponsors Should Review LDI Strategies

A white paper from Rocaton Investment Advisors suggests market conditions combined with recently passed pension funding relief justifies a new look at liability-driven investment (LDI) strategies.

“[Defined benefit plan] sponsors shouldn’t just accept that what was put in place five years ago is serving the same purpose today and still has the strength of argument it did then,” Joe Nankof, partner and head of asset allocation research at Rocaton Investment Advisors, told PLANSPONSOR. “Sponsors should be prudent about evaluating the market at all times and evaluating how that and new regulations affect allocation decisions.”  

Nankof explained that LDI can be viewed as a form of insurance where defined benefit (DB) plan sponsors pay a premium to hedge a risk. The risk is interest rate risk inherent in the liability of the pension plan, and long bonds hedge that risk at a cost. The cost comes from sponsors sacrificing returns, because other asset classes would generate better returns than investment grade fixed-income. Nankof said two things make the argument for LDI weaker than five years ago, opportunity cost is much greater because of the low interest rate environment, and the recent passage of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) diminishes the hedging benefits of long duration bonds relative to funding liabilities.  

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MAP-21 will reduce contribution requirements for most corporate plan sponsors on absolute level and reduce volatility with interest rate moves as well, Nankof explained, adding that if funding valuations are not moving as extremely, and plans are invested in long bonds, the match between assets and liabilities is not as close.

 

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Many pension plans are sitting on significant allocations to long bonds today that have generated much better than expected returns in recent years, and sponsors also have a schedule to put more into long bonds. “Sponsors have a significant decision every day for what to do with these investments that were designed to serve a purpose,” Nankof noted.He said options plan sponsors have, considering the implications of MAP-21, include suspending plans to move more money into long bonds and shortening the duration of long bonds to generate more reasonable rates of return for the next five years.  

The white paper warns that the impact of pension funding relief is expected to wear off over time. Because of this, and the inability to know the future interest rate environment, Rocaton suggests sponsors also develop a plan that enables them to re-engage their LDI programs when and if market conditions or plan characteristics change.  

There are factors DB plan sponsors should consider when setting their overall investment strategy, such as plan type, plan status (i.e. open, closed or frozen) and the importance of the effect of pension financials on the company. “Anything that would make plan sponsors more risk averse would lead them to keep long bonds or potentially add to long bonds in the current environment,” Nankof stated. He explained that for plans closed or frozen and for plans where plan financials can have a significant impact on sponsors’ bottom line, plan sponsors are more likely to keep the risk management framework they have in place. For plans open and growing and sponsored by an entity that will not be greatly impacted by plan financials and funding requirements, sponsors are more likely to suspend moves into long bonds or move money out of long bonds into shorter duration bonds or other asset classes.  

Rocaton also suggests in its white paper that DB plan sponsors review their current situation either through an asset allocation review or asset/liability study.

 

Business Is Good, But the Economy Not So Much

Most advisers believe the American Dream is alive, but that Millennials will have a harder time attaining the economic status of their parents, a study found.

With a month until the election, the mood of independent registered investment advisers (RIAs) is a study in big-picture optimism with a strong shot of short-term pessimism, according to the 12th semi-annual Independent Advisor Outlook Study from Charles Schwab Advisor Services.

Independent advisers are very bullish about their own businesses, and many are hiring, the study found. At the same time, they see a range of challenges facing their clients, particularly in the near- to mid-term and, year-over-year, their outlook for the economy and markets overall is trending negative.

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For the first time, the study asked advisers for their perspectives on the American Dream, recognizing their unique vantage point as business owners and as professionals who have contact with individual investors. The result: advisers believe the American Dream is very much alive, though they say it will be harder for Millennials to achieve the same economic status as their parents.

Investors are faced with a complicated and uncertain economic and investment environment, observed Bernie Clark, executive vice president and head of Schwab Advisor Services. “It is a veritable mixed bag of risk and opportunity in which only one thing is very clear – the critical need for trusted advice,” Clark said.

Advisers are optimistic about their own businesses over the next four years: eight in ten are bullish regarding assets under management and firm profitability. More than one-third (37%) of advisers said they have hired new staff, especially in investment management (48%), client service (47%), operations support (47%) and business development (32%).

 

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The new jobs come on the heels of four years of growth for most advisers: 75% report their assets under management have grown over the past four years, and more than half (55%) report improved profitability.

Among the business and industry issues with a potential impact on business, regulatory changes (49%), changing client demographics (27%), succession planning (25%) and the costs of running an adviser firm (24%) rank highest of those topics advisers are following most closely.

Advisers are also optimistic about the American Dream. The majority (81%) believe it is still alive, but say the American Dream is different than it was a generation ago. Four in ten are bullish about the American Dream over the next four years, but at the same time, they are cognizant of potentially serious challenges.

Close to two-thirds (63%) of advisers say it will be difficult to achieve clients’ goals, and they point to the Federal debt (65%), high unemployment (61%), the cost of college education (60%) and health care costs (59%) as having the most negative impact on the ability to achieve the American Dream.

“Advisers have a prism of reference that includes both the individual client’s personal and financial picture, and the adviser’s own experience as a business owner in this challenging economic environment,” Clark said.

Adviser optimism regarding the markets is down 12 percentage points since the beginning of the year and is in line with levels seen in the lead-up to the 2008 election. Just 55% of advisers predict the performance of the S&P 500 will increase in the next six months, despite the fact that the S&P 500 is in fact approaching levels not seen since 2007.

 

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More than half the advisers surveyed think the U.S. economy and the state of the capital markets have worsened in the past four years, and the rising economic optimism reflected in the Independent Adviser Outlook Study released in early spring has not been sustained.

Highlights of the study include:

 

  • 34% of advisers are bullish on the market now, down from 45% in January;
  • Advisers who think unemployment will increase have almost doubled – 33% versus 18%;
  • More advisers think inflation will increase – 50% versus 44%; and
  • More advisers are concerned about a double-dip recession – 23% versus 14%.

In terms of the impact on their investment choices, advisers are pulling back from U.S. large- and small-cap equities, and increasing allocations to cash and real assets. Thirty-two percent of advisers said they are likely to invest more in U.S. large cap, a drop of nine percentage points from earlier this year. A similar drop was seen for U.S. small cap (from 23% to 18%).

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are still the investment vehicle that most advisers are likely to invest more in the next six months – advisers register almost double or more the level of interest in ETFs compared with all other investment vehicles.

The upcoming election is affecting eight in ten advisers and their clients. Among these advisers: one in three indicate that it is difficult to get clients to focus on the long-term; close to a third (30%) say clients are keeping money on the sidelines until they know who wins the election; and, while 59% say the election is a major topic of conversation in many client meetings, 40% avoid getting into partisan political discussions.

Whatever the outcome, advisers feel the top priorities of the newly elected president should include reducing the deficit (61%), increasing employment (53%) and reforming the tax code (52%).

The Independent Adviser Outlook Study, conducted by Koski Research, has a 3.3% margin of error. The study collected opinions of more than 830 RIAs representing $183 billion in assets under management, and was fielded between August 21 and August 31.

Other findings can be accessed in the full report.

 

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