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Approximately 70% of institutional investment managers believe that
the risk of inflation will increase over the next six months, according
to a Northern Trust survey.
A majority of managers (62%) expect market volatility (as
measured by the VIX Index), to increase over the next six months.
Responses on both questions were at their highest points since the
Northern Trust survey began in the third quarter of 2008.Twenty-six percent of the managers increased their
portfolio exposure to commodities during the first quarter, a possible
result of the increasing expectations that inflation is set to rise over
the next six months.
More than half of those surveyed believe that oil prices
will continue to rise over the next six months, with 90 percent of
managers expressing the view that increased oil prices will negatively
impact economic growth.
The survey found managers remain positive regarding U.S.
market valuations. The majority (58%) stated that the U.S. equity
market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is undervalued. However,
there was a decrease in the number of managers who believe that
corporate earnings will increase over the next three months, from 80% in
the fourth quarter of 2010 to 69% during the first quarter of 2011.
Looking at Japan following the March 11 earthquake and
tsunami, two-thirds of managers surveyed believe Japanese equities are
undervalued. There was also an increase from previous quarters in the
degree of perceived undervaluation, as 31% of managers see more than 10%
upside in Japanese equities – a 12% rise from the previous quarter.
(Cont...)
Institutional Investment Managers More Risk-Averse
A
quarterly survey conducted by Northern Trust finds that 36% of
institutional investment managers are more risk-averse compared to last
quarter when just 20% expressed this view.Portfolio concentration levels remained largely unchanged for the quarter relative to the fourth quarter of 2010.Roughly
66% of managers stated that their portfolio concentrations were the
same as last quarter, while 21% stated that their portfolios were more
concentrated, down slightly from 24% last quarter. Thirteen percent of
managers stated that their portfolios were less concentrated, a slight
uptick from 11 percent last quarter.
The
survey also found 42% of managers think that home prices will decline
over the next six months, an increase of 10 percentage points over the
prior quarter.Investment managers cited technology,
energy, industrials, emerging markets, and health care as the top five
most attractive market segments respectively. The
percentage of managers that believe emerging markets are undervalued
rose slightly from 39% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 43% during the
first quarter of 2011.
The survey of
approximately 88 institutional managers was conducted by NTGA in
mid-March. All respondents participate in NTGA's external manager
platform and are utilized in investment products including mutual funds,
separate accounts, emerging manager programs and other investment
solutions.