Markets get nervous during periods of transition, and the
normalization of interest rates will be a “rocky road,” said Quincy Krosby, chief
market strategist for Prudential Annuities, during the Prudential 2013 Midyear
Global Markets & Economic Outlook briefing in New York City.
John Praveen, chief investment strategist for Prudential
International Investments Advisers, is also optimistic about the market
recovery, but agrees that volatility will be a factor until there is more
certainty about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate and liquidity strategy. “Right
now, we are in very choppy waters. … In the near term, we are probably going to
see markets struggling,” he said.
For the remainder of 2013, Praveen said, global equity
markets are supported by a number of positives, including low interest rates
and plentiful liquidity; strengthening global growth and benign inflation;
improving risk appetite as the Eurozone continues to re-stabilize; a healthy
earnings rebound and attractive valuations.
Michael Lillard, chief investment officer of Prudential
Fixed Income, views the recent turbulence in the fixed-income markets as an overreaction
to the Federal Reserve’s plan to begin “tapering” its quantitative easing
program later this year, provided unemployment continues to trend lower.
“In particular, the sell-off in the credit-related sectors
was fueled by a shift in market technicals, not fundamentals, resulting in
market dislocations that have created long-term value opportunities,” Lillard
said. “We expect interest rates to remain relatively low from a historical
perspective, and while they may drift somewhat higher over time, the extreme volatility
that we’ve witnessed recently is unlikely to persist.”
After struggling at about 2% growth for the past few years,
by late 2014 the U.S. should start to experience quarters with real GDP growth
of 5% or more, predicted Ed Keon, managing director of Quantitative Management
Associates, during the Prudential 2013 Midyear Global Markets & Economic
Outlook briefing in New York City.
The housing market, labor market and access to credit will
all add to growth, he said. Keon joked that he has “insane optimism,” but is
hopeful that the economy will prosper. “Ultimately, we offer an optimistic view
of the economy, and suggest that the recovery is real and likely to gain
strength over the next couple of years,” he said.
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The Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies (TCRS) released “Unlocking Secrets of Retirement Readiness: Meet the Everyday People Who Are ‘Power Planners,'” which shows the majority of employees (62%) said they are less confident about retirement since the start of the recession, and many Baby Boomers (43%) now expect to work longer and retire at a later age.
Catherine Collinson, TCRS president and author of the survey, told PLANSPONSOR, “The conversation on this began about two years ago, as we were finding that more people were thinking about the question of whether to work past the age of 70. We decided last year to think about that in terms of retirement readiness and what its definition is now. When we started to research the topic, we found that there are now a myriad of definitions for ‘retirement readiness.’ The old definition of building up a retirement nest egg, retiring at 65 and no longer have to set your alarm clock no longer applies. The survey allowed us to introduce our own definition of retirement readiness.”
The survey defined retirement readiness as a state in which an individual is well-prepared for retirement, should it happen as planned or unexpectedly, and can continue generating adequate income to cover living expenses throughout their lifetime through retirement savings and investments, employer pension benefits, government benefits, and/or continuing to work in some manner while allowing for leisure time to enjoy life.
Five key elements of retirement readiness were identified:
A clear vision of retirement, including retirement dreams/expectations, expected retirement age, and any plans to continue working in retirement;
A retirement strategy that incorporates savings needs, potential risks, and a back-up plan if forced into retirement sooner than expected;
Retirement income, including savings and investments, pension benefits, and government benefits;
Knowledge to make informed decisions about retirement investments, government benefits, and health care; and
A family understanding, including an open dialogue about finances and agreement on any expectations of support.
According to the Los Angeles-based Collinson, the survey revealed a group of employees who are on the road to retirement readiness, deemed as Power Planners. These Power Planners then fell into five subcategories, which are connected with the aforementioned key behaviors, and include:
Future Early Retirees, whose clear vision of retirement is to retire sooner than age 65;
10 Percenters, whose retirement income goals include saving 10% or more of their salary through their retirement plan;
Strategists, whose retirement strategy includes a written plan;
Knowledgeables, whose knowledge allows them to make informed retirement decisions; and
Conversationalists, whose family understanding allows them to frequently discuss retirement issues with family and friends.
"We found that the Future Early Retirees were usually more active in retirement planning. Those that had a written plan for retirement, Strategists, made up about 12% of employees. For the Knowledgeables, we found that 31% disagreed with the statement 'I do not know as much as I should about retirement investing.' And the Conversationalists, those who spoke openly with family members about retirement planning, made up 9% of employees," Collinson noted.
Regarding the findings of the survey, Collinson said, "The biggest surprise for us was the demographic breakdown of the Power Planners we documented in the survey. This group turned out to be all different ages and below $100,000 in annual income. Their common denominator was that they were all proactive people with exceptional saving habits."
She clarified that survey was meant to acknowledge what people are doing right in terms of retirement readiness and how they can build on that. "We found that while 59% of Power Planners were doing at least one of the five behaviors, there is still room for improvement. Doing one thing is tremendous but doing more furthers retirement readiness. We recommend that people start with one behavior and build on others over time."
In the survey, Collinson recommended a number of ways plan sponsors can encourage and foster the key behaviors for retirement readiness.
"Employers can offer a retirement plan to employees if they are not doing it already," she said. "One thing we found was that part-time employees have less access to retirement plans, so a suggestion to plan sponsors would be to cover part-time employees too." Collinson added that steps can be taken to encourage participation in the plan such as increasing employer matching contributions, as well as adding plan features like automatic enrollment and escalation.
She suggested plan sponsors make more employees aware of the Saver's Credit, also known as the Retirement Savings Contributions Credit. This tax credit is available to lower income individuals that contribute to qualified retirement plans such as 401(k)s. "The awareness of this program still isn't what it needs to be. We found that only 24% of workers even know about it."
Collinson also pointed out that employees seeking more education and advice about retirement from their employers, particularly those that are close to retiring. "We found that there is a gap in employers assisting those that are nearing retirement age. We would recommend that more planning services are offered to this group and to help them make that transition from the workforce to retirement."
Harris Interactive conducted the survey online on behalf of the TCRS between January 20 and February 21, 2013. More than 3,600 full- and part-time employees from around the country were surveyed.