In his mid-year “10 Predictions,” an update to the annual 10 investment predictions released at the beginning of the year, Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager, chief equity strategist, at Nuveen, said he thinks there is a “light at the end of a very long tunnel.”
“We think conditions will continue improving, but we are also growing more concerned about market risks,” Doll says.
He now says that the U.S. and the world will experience a sharp, but reasonably short, recession with a noticeable recovery before year-end. But he adds that it will be the deepest recession in post-World War II history.
Second, Doll predicts that all-time low yields will move higher during the second half of the year, with the 10-year Treasury closing the year above 1%. His third prediction is that earnings will collapse, but rise by the fourth quarter.
Fourth, he predicts that “stocks, bonds and cash all return less than 5% for only the fourth time in 25 years” and, for his fifth prediction, he says he expects the dollar to weaken as global growth strengthens in the second half of the year.
Sixth on his list, Doll expects value and cyclicals to outperform growth and defensive stocks in the second half of the year. His seventh prediction is that financials, technology and health care stocks will outperform utilities, energy and materials in the second half of the year.
Doll’s eighth prediction is that active equity managers will outperform their indexes for the first time in a decade.
Ninth, Doll says he fully expects the cold war between the U.S. and China to continue.
And finally, his 10th prediction is that the coronavirus-induced recession and rise in unemployment will cause Donald Trump to be a one-term president.