Doll Says Recession Will Be Deepest Since WWII

But the chief equity strategist at Nuveen expects it to be short-lived.

In his mid-year “10 Predictions,” an update to the annual 10 investment predictions released at the beginning of the year, Bob Doll, senior portfolio manager, chief equity strategist, at Nuveen, said he thinks there is a “light at the end of a very long tunnel.”

“We think conditions will continue improving, but we are also growing more concerned about market risks,” Doll says.

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He now says that the U.S. and the world will experience a sharp, but reasonably short, recession with a noticeable recovery before year-end. But he adds that it will be the deepest recession in post-World War II history.

Second, Doll predicts that all-time low yields will move higher during the second half of the year, with the 10-year Treasury closing the year above 1%. His third prediction is that earnings will collapse, but rise by the fourth quarter.

Fourth, he predicts that “stocks, bonds and cash all return less than 5% for only the fourth time in 25 years” and, for his fifth prediction, he says he expects the dollar to weaken as global growth strengthens in the second half of the year.

Sixth on his list, Doll expects value and cyclicals to outperform growth and defensive stocks in the second half of the year. His seventh prediction is that financials, technology and health care stocks will outperform utilities, energy and materials in the second half of the year.

Doll’s eighth prediction is that active equity managers will outperform their indexes for the first time in a decade.

Ninth, Doll says he fully expects the cold war between the U.S. and China to continue.

And finally, his 10th prediction is that the coronavirus-induced recession and rise in unemployment will cause Donald Trump to be a one-term president.

Parties Voluntarily Dismiss Case Challenging American Airlines’ DB Plan Calculations

The case applied to several DB plans sponsored by the company and challenged the use of an "inherently unreasonable" mortality table for calculating benefits.

Parties in the lawsuit against American Airlines challenging the mortality table used to calculate defined benefit (DB) plan benefits have file a stipulation for dismissal.

The case against American Airlines applied to several DB plans sponsored by the company. The complaint said American’s use of the UP 1984 mortality table for those plans is inherently unreasonable because of its outdated accelerated mortality rates.

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The same two law firms filed similar cases against MetLife and PepsiCo, saying the use of outdated mortality tables in determining annuity payments causes retirees to lose part of their vested retirement benefits. In all three cases, the plaintiffs sought an order from the court reforming the plan or plans to conform to the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and payment of future benefits in accordance with the reformed plan(s).

The case against PepsiCo was similarly voluntarily dismissed in November. That came after a federal judge ruled for the firm and ordered the case closed, then reconsidered and allowed for the plaintiffs to file an amended complaint.

On July 1, the parties in the American Airlines lawsuit filed a notice with the court saying they had reached a settlement agreement. The court directed them to file either a stipulation of dismissal or an agreed motion with corresponding proposed order no later than July 29.

There are no details in the stipulation for dismissal, and with no settlement agreement filed, it is unknown why the parties agreed to have the case dismissed. The stipulation of dismissal was “with prejudice,” meaning it cannot be brought back to court.

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