Fildes, an experienced thought
leader in strategic public policy for global corporations, has more than 30
years of experience in government affairs and private law practice with major
corporations focusing primarily on tax issues and employer-provided benefits. Recently,
Fildes focused on government relations, political advocacy and communications as
executive vice president of public affairs for the Retail Industry Leaders
Association (RILA).
Previously, Fildes held senior
executive positions in the public policy and government affairs groups for
General Motors and Honeywell, where she led government relations efforts on
public policies, including taxes, health care, labor and pensions, among other issues.
Fildes has advised members of Congress, including Senate Majority Leaders Bob
Dole and Trent Lott, as well as Administration officials. She has also represented Fortune 100
corporations directly before Congress and the executive branch.
Fildes is the co-author of the “Employer’s
Guide to Fringe Benefits,” with Mary B. Hevener, and the author of several
articles in the Journal of the American Bar Association, the Journal of
Taxation of Employee Benefits and other publications.
Fildes assumed responsibilities on
January 12, succeeding Scott Macey, the organization’s interim CEO.
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committed to the advancement of the employee retirement, health care coverage
and welfare benefit plans of the country’s major employers.
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Geopolitical risk
and European economic stagnation are seen as the top risks for equity
investments in 2015, according to a quarterly survey of institutional
money managers published by Northern Trust.
The survey results for the fourth quarter of 2014 show investment
managers overwhelmingly expect market volatility to increase in the first half
of 2015. Most managers also remain at least somewhat concerned about
geopolitical risk and a slowdown in Europe, but these issues have not been wide-reaching enough to endanger a generally positive view of U.S. economic and
corporate profit growth opportunities, Northern Trust says.
Eight in 10 institutional asset managers expect volatility—as
measured by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX)—to
rise over the next six months. As Northern Trust observes, this is a new
high for increased volatility expectations since the survey’s launch in October
2008. The previous high for the number of advisers forecasting increased future volatility
was set in the third-quarter 2014 survey, when 70% of advisers said they
expected volatility to go up.
A European economic slowdown is high on most managers’ rankings of risks to equity markets, Northern Trust says, and a little
more than half of respondents expect the Eurozone’s gross domestic product (GDP)
will remain flat or negative over the next six months. Nearly all managers
expect the European Central Bank to implement a quantitative easing (QE)
program, and 54% expect it to go into effect in the first quarter of 2015.
Investment managers’
expectations regarding the U.S. economy remain strongly positive. For example, Northern
Trust notes that 95% expect corporate profits to either remain the same or
increase in the first quarter of 2015. Another 86% expect job growth to either
remain stable or accelerate over the next six months, and a relatively strong majority
(61%) expects housing prices to rise over the next six months, up from 52%
the previous quarter.
Other
survey results show most (86%) institutional money managers expect the recent
drop in global oil prices to have a positive effect on global GDP, while 11% expect
a negative net impact from lower oil prices. Similarly, more than
three-quarters (76%) of the managers polled by Northern Trust believe the
strengthening U.S. dollar will have “just a modest negative impact on U.S.
corporate earnings,” while 19% believe it will have little to no impact, or a
net positive impact on U.S. corporate earnings.
“Given the relative strength in the U.S. economy, most
managers do not expect the dramatic decline in the price of oil or the strength
in the U.S. dollar to derail the U.S. equity market,” notes Mark Meisel, senior
investment product manager of the firm’s multi-manager solutions group, who
oversees the survey. “Most of the managers in the survey make investment
decisions on fundamental analysis and they seem to remain cautiously optimistic
on U.S. equities.”
Somewhat offsetting the positive views, Northern Trust says 36%
of managers see U.S. equities as overvalued. This represents the largest share
with that view in the survey’s history, researchers note. Emerging markets, on
the other hand, are seen as undervalued by 53% of managers, while 49% view
European equities as undervalued.
On the bullish/bearish spectrum for asset classes and broad
economic sectors, managers are most bullish on U.S. large cap equities,
non-U.S. developed equities and information technology, consumer discretionary
and industrials, Northern Trust finds. By asset class, a majority of managers are
bearish on U.S. fixed income (65%) and commodities (61%). By sector,
significant numbers of managers are bearish on utilities (69%), materials (45%)
and telecom services (43%).
Northern Trust says the fourth-quarter 2014 survey also
asked for views on “a business issue facing active managers: the increasing
asset flows and market share of passive (and smart beta) strategies.” A strong
majority of managers (68%) believe that the increase in the market share of
passive/smart beta strategies will have no effect on their ability to
generate excess return (alpha) over their benchmark. However, Northern Trust
finds 22% believe the growth of these strategies will have a short-term effect
on their ability to produce excess returns, and 10% expect a more serious
long-term, systematic impact.
And while just over half (51%) of managers experienced no
negative impact from the growth of passive/smart beta strategies, 46% report
that flows into passive/smart beta products have had a modest negative impact
on their active businesses, according to Northern Trust. Over the next five
years, a slight majority (51%) expects passive strategies to gain modestly
higher market share of institutional investment assets, while 9% believe those
strategies will have significantly higher market share. Forty-one percent
expect the same or lower market share for passive/smart beta strategies over
the next five years, Northern Trust finds.