401(k) Trading Hit Four-Year High on Monday

A market dip to start the week saw more 401(k) trades toward safe assets than had been seen since the March 2020 onset of the pandemic, according to Alight.

Market declines come and go. But Monday’s sharp sell-off appeared to spook even everyday 401(k) savers more than usual, with trading activity hitting its highest mark since the pandemic spooked markets back in March 2020.

Trading activity in 401(k) plans held by recordkeeper Alight surged to 8.3 times the average daily volume, according to Rob Austin, head of thought leadership for Alight Solutions. Net trading on August 5 made up 0.08% of balances; for comparison, the net trading for all of July was 0.09%, according to Alight.

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Austin, who tracks trading through Alight’s 401(k) Index, notes that people are most likely to trade in their retirement plans when market indices fall by 2% or more in a day; on Monday, the three major U.S. indices fell by more than 2.5%.

The 401(k) traders “overwhelmingly sought safety” in their choices, according to Austin, with stable value funds, bonds and money markets accounting for most inflows.

Meanwhile, outflows were primarily from large-cap U.S. equities, along with target-date funds, though to a lesser extent.

By Tuesday, the markets had begun to settle, clawing back some gains. But Austin notes that many 401(k) traders may hold those safer assets, at least for a while.

“Trading activity often settles, but much depends on how the market responds,” he says. “Historically, people are much more likely to quickly react when stocks fall, and they often don’t buy back into equities until well after they have rebounded.”

He also noted, as did many retirement saving experts that PLANADVISER spoke to on Monday, that plan sponsors will likely be communicating a message of calm to participants, without overstepping their role.

“Many plan sponsors will provide communications on the importance of staying the course and not reacting to daily swings in the market, but they also don’t want to accidentally become a fiduciary by providing specific advice,” he said.

There’s no question trading outside of 401(k)s was running rampant on Monday, in part due to a soft employment market report that came out Friday morning, August 2. Retail brokerages Charles Schwab and Fidelity Investments both reported issues on their trading platforms, with website Downdetector, which tracks online service outages, noting a high volume of problem reports from customers.

Alight is the third largest defined contribution recordkeeper by both assets and participants, following Fidelity and Empower in both categories, according to the Recordkeeping Survey by PLANSPONSOR, a sister publication of PLANADVISER.

Market Sell-Off Highlights Need for Ongoing Participant Education

Advisers say a quiet client response to the market drop is a good example of how regular education helps participants and plan sponsors.

A global stock market sell-off on Monday saw the U.S.’s major market indexes fall by more than 2.5%.

While markets may have been busy, top retirement plan advisers say the response was muted from most clients and participants—in part due to the many months and days of educational work and messaging concerning potential market downturns.

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John O’Brien, director of retirement plan consulting for Venture Visionary Partners, says his firm fielded very few calls on the market from plan participants and none from plan sponsors, as of Monday afternoon. The calls that did come in, he notes, were focused on opportunities to increase contributions on the downturn and/or consider a higher risk tolerance, as well as a “refresh” on why going to cash is not usually a good long-term option.

“It’s obvious the thought is crossing the minds of some, but I’ve not seen panic at all,” says O’Brien.

Part of that, he believes, is due to the regular education and plan diversification his practice focuses on with clients.

“Having had conversations about the impacts of growth, mega-cap tech, Fab 5 in the S&P 500 during this year—I feel—has really helped tone down the reactions,” says O’Brien. ”I expect there will be concerns from those with shorter horizons, which is why we’re putting a higher emphasis on scheduling employee meetings in connection with open enrollment season, the election and year-end,” while noting the firm schedules those meetings every year.

When Heffernan Financial Services advisers hear from plan sponsors and participants during periods of market volatility, they emphasize the long-term investment focus of workplace retirement plans, says Sean Kelly, a financial adviser and vice president with the firm.

“Through group education and one-on-one coaching, we stress the importance of staying the course, remaining invested, and continuing contributions as a sound strategy for managing workplace retirement plans,“ he says.

Historically, Kelly notes, “many of the best days in the market occur just weeks after the worst days. In other words, some of the highest market returns often follow closely after significant declines, highlighting the importance of staying invested.“

Keep Calm, Carry On

Courtenay Shipley, founder and head of Retirement Planology, notes that she has not gotten calls and usually doesn’t, even during big market swings, again in part due to the firm’s messaging with clients.

“We hammer on the ‘Stay calm and carry on’ mantra,” she says.

Shipley does expect a somewhat “weird year” because of the November elections, with topics such as interest rate changes and company earning performance of the so-called “Magnificent 7” stocks getting interest or questions. But whatever transpires, she will be advising clients to “ignore the panic headlines and click bait, and instead focus on having a good long-term strategy and sticking with it.”

Michael Gheen, a vice president and director of retirement plan services at Oswald Financial, notes that the firm had only received calls from a couple of plan sponsors out of hundreds of clients.

When those calls come in, he says, “Our position with both sponsors and participants is explaining the reason for the downtown, reinforcing the benefits of diversifying and—from a participant perspective—reviewing their asset allocation to confirm it’s appropriate for them. And adjusting if needed, not adjusting due to the recent downturn.”

Grant Ellis, a managing principal at Ellis Retirement Services, says a proactive communication strategy with clients and participants about market volatility is the best preparation for when it happens.

“We receive far fewer concerned client communications now, because for years, we have been educating them about the market and how it regularly moves up and down, sometime quite a bit at once, and that this isn’t something to be afraid of,” he says.

No Emergency 

Ellis adds, similar to Shipley, that calm messaging is key.

“If your communication sends the message that we are in an emergency situation and you are afraid, your clients will feel that, and it will make them afraid as well,” he says. “If, however, you approach the volatility with calm, confidence and helpful information, they will feel that as well, and they won’t feel as though we are in an emergency situation that needs fixing.”

At market close on Monday, the Nasdaq Composite had fallen the furthest at 3.4%, the S&P 500 fell 3.0%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%.

Many analysts are attributing some of the sell-off to a Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report from August 2 that came in below estimates—with unemployment rising to 4.3% from 4.1% in June, and 114,000 jobs added. Meanwhile, Japan’s central bank, which had been keeping interest rates low, hiked rates on July 31 and signaled plans for further increases. The news contributed to a decline in stocks in that country not seen in decades.

O’Brien, of Venture Visionary Partners, says these types of market events are why he advocates for “multiple investment options within qualified plans”—including a default target-date fund, risk-based allocation models and participant fund options. To get the right combination, he places a “high emphasis” on participant education.

“There is never a one-size-fits-all approach, and when these pathways are combined with education, the participant has greater ownership and confidence in what they’re doing,” he says. “Knowledge is power, even if they don’t get into the weeds of asset management.”

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