Will You Get a Raise in 2016?

Salary increase projections from human resources firms are flat.

Salary increases in 2015 averaged between 2.8% and 3%, while projections for 2016 are reported between 2.9% and 3%, according to survey results from human resources firms Mercer, Aon Hewitt, Towers Watson, Hay Group, the Conference Board and WorldatWork.

The expected average salary increase budget is down slightly, from 2015’s projection of 3% to an average base pay increase of 2.9% for 2016, according to Mercer’s 2015/2016 Compensation Planning Survey. The actual average pay increase in 2015 was 2.8%. These figures include employers that did not give pay raises.

Employees with the highest performance ratings can expect raises of 5% in 2016, up from 4.8% the previous year, while those with the lowest performance ratings can look forward to 0.2%, the same rate they received last year. Mercer projects average raises of 3% for executives; 2.9% for management, professional, office, clerical and technical staff; and 2.8% for trade, production and service workers.

Results from Aon Hewitt’s 2015 U.S. Salary Increase Survey show 2015 base pay increases averaged 2.9% for exempt salaried employees, while variable pay increases averaged 12.9%. The projected average base pay for 2016 climbed slightly, to 3%.

The highest 2016 increases are expected in Washington, D.C. (3.8%), Dallas (3.5%) and Minneapolis (3.3%).

Towers Watson reports that while average pay increases in 2015 and 2016 remain at 3% for non-management and non-executive employees, the highest performers will fare much better than those with lower performance ratings, with 2015 increases of 4.6% compared with 2.6% for average workers and less than 1% for below-average workers.

WorldatWork’s respondents are reporting projected salary increase budgets of 3.1% for 2016, up slightly from 2015. Last year’s top performers received an average increase of 4%, while midlevel performers were given 2.7%.