Legend - Bob Doll

The term “guru” gets tossed around quite a bit in the financial world these days. It is applied willy-nilly to just about anybody willing to stand up before a crowd and expound advice on what to do with money.

In its most classical definition, however, a “guru” is supposed to be someone who has acquired great knowledge, wisdom, and authority, who then uses that great knowledge, wisdom, and authority to guide others. So, if there is anyone who fits the definition of guru in its purest sense, it would be BlackRock’s Bob Doll.

Doll is one of the most followed investment managers in the United States. His annual 10 Predictions on the economy and markets are widely anticipated. His in-depth knowledge of the marketplace, both domestic and globally, and how conditions in those markets will affect not just particular investments but the markets and economies as a whole, is widely acknowledged by the entire financial community.

Doll’s annual 10 Predictions are a series of economic and market predictions addressing the state of the U.S. and global economies, potential investment returns, geopolitical developments, and other significant topics that could impact investments. Doll started making his annual financial predictions, as a purely client communication, back in the mid-1990s when he was President and Chief Investment Officer at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers. “They were a way to communicate and crystallize our thinking and a way to engage the client,” he says.

Word soon got out, however, and, within a few years, the media began asking for copies of his annual predictions and Doll was invited to appear on news shows to discuss his forecasts for the economic future. His annual 10 Predictions are now published in both trade and consumer publications, and he is invited often to appear on cable financial news shows to discuss them as well. “It’s become the basis of macro conversations with people,” he says, “I had no clue that, over the years, they would take off in the way they did and get a following.”

Those predictions are watched closely because they are usually correct. Of the 10 he made for 2010, seven hit the mark directly,* two turned out to be partly right (Health Care, Information Technology, and Telecommunications outperform Financials, Utilities, and Materials, and Republicans make noticeable gains in the House and Senate, but Democrats remain firmly in control of Congress.), and only one was flat out wrong (Interest rates rise at all points on the Treasury curve, including Fed funds).

Doll says that the predictions are both a blessing and a curse. “I have to live with them all year,” he says. Doll points out that the majority of his time is spent managing portfolios, so, while he may say one thing on January 1, things can look very different on July 1, and he has to account for the new realities.

However, beyond his annual forward-thinking predictions, Doll notes longer-term trends as well. The most significant thing to happen to the economy and markets, and his predictions, in the last five years, he says, is the extent to which the U.S. economy has gone global. Fifteen years ago, his annual predictions were predominantly U.S.-focused, with maybe one prediction somewhat touching on a global issue. Now, however, he says, more than half of his annual predictions are global because the U.S. is no longer as isolated as it once was.

Over the next five years, Doll predicts that the world will continue to get smaller, with assets and economies even more dependent on each other. “So what happens in the economy of Brazil will affect Germany,” he says, “and the trend will continue to accelerate.”

Managers, he says, need to have perspective and not be reactionary. “There is a tendency to manage looking in a rear-view mirror.”

Doll says he became interested in the markets while he was an undergraduate at Lehigh University, where he earned Bachelor’s degrees in Accounting and Economics. He had a friend whose father was involved in the options market. Doll says that, once he learned about options, he knew he wanted to go to graduate school. “I fell in love with the business and went to graduate school to specialize in finance.” Doll went on to earn his M.B.A degree from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also a C.F.A. charter holder and a Certified Public Accountant.

However, Doll is not just all about numbers and predictions. When not predicting the future of the markets, Doll is actively involved with his church, where he teaches Sunday school classes and serves as the church’s organist and choirmaster. Doll is also on the boards of a number of evangelical organizations including the Alliance of Confessing Evangelicals, Word of Life Fellowship, New Canaan Society, and Kingdom Advisors.

Despite those outside interests, Doll, 56, doesn’t see himself retiring from the world of finance any time soon. BlackRock, he says, has changed his responsibilities at the firm so that he can continue to work for a long, long time. “I don’t see myself retiring,” he says, “I don’t see myself getting up in the morning and not managing portfolios. Portfolios are always incrementally changing and we’re making trades every day.”

“I think the longer I’m in this business, the more keeping things simple makes sense,” he says.  —Elayne Robertson Demby 

* The U.S. economy grows above 3% in 2010 and outpaces the G-7; job growth in the U.S. turns positive early in 2010, but the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high; earnings rise significantly despite mediocre economic growth; inflation remains a non-issue in the developed world; U.S. stocks outperform cash and treasury, and most developed markets; emerging markets outperform as emerging economies grow significantly faster than developed ones; strong free cash flow and slow growth lead to an increase in M&A activity. 

The “Legend”  

In addition to his role as a well-respected fund manager, Bob Doll has made a tradition of showcasing his “Top 10 Predictions” for the year ahead and they are annually one of the most viewed articles on PLANADVISER.com. His weekly and quarterly commentaries, coupled with his annual 10 Predictions, have made him one of the foremost authorities on the economy and financial markets, and one of the few personalities to have drawn a noticeable “following” of the PLANADVISER audience. 

Doll wears many hats at BlackRock—a provider of global investment management, risk management, and advisory services. As BlackRock’s Chief Equity Strategist for Fundamental Equities and Lead Portfolio Manager of BlackRock’s U.S. Large Cap Series Funds, Doll is responsible for managing nearly $3.5 trillion in assets. He is a Director of approximately 40 registered investment companies consisting of 63 portfolios advised by Fund Asset Management, L.P., and Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, L.P. Doll is a Trustee and Director at Merrill Lynch USA Government Reserves. He is also Director of Floating Rate Income Strategies Fund II Inc., and a director at BlackRock, Inc., Princeton Services Inc., Enhanced Equity Yield Fund, Inc., and MuniYield Arizona Fund, Inc. 

Doll’s service with the firm dates back to 1999, including his years with Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (MLIM), which merged with BlackRock in 2006. At MLIM, he served as the President and Chief Investment Officer and Senior Portfolio Manager of the Merrill Lynch Large Cap Series Funds. Prior to joining MLIM, Doll served as the Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer Funds, Inc. He received a BS in Accounting and a BA in Economics from Lehigh University and an MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Doll is both a Certified Public Account and a Chartered Financial Analyst.