IMHO: The End in Mind

Having spent three days immersed in PLANSPONSOR’s second annual DB Summit, I was struck by just how relatively “easy″ participant-directed plans—be they 401(k), 403(b), or 457- are.
Now, I hope you picked up on the use of the word “relatively.’ I wouldn’t suggest for a minute that participant-directed programs don’t have their challenges. If the concept of saving is simple enough, the science of investing, compounding, and tax-deferral presents daunting intellectual obstacles for many. Even expert practitioners struggle with notions of “reasonable’ fees, appropriate glide paths for target-date funds, and the applicability of QDIA regulations in the “real world.’
Over the years, our industry has worked to make participant-directed programs more accessible to participants. More recently, we have accommodated those who don’t want that access (for whatever reason)—or those who prefer to hire experts (or both)—with an assortment of automatic plan design features.
Meanwhile, IMHO, defined benefit designs have gotten more complex. Ironically, alongside the very Pension Protection Act provisions that have yielded such clarity to future defined contribution designs, we have managed, in a number of key areas, to take already convoluted calculations, turn them on their head, and introduce several new variables (several of which are, just weeks ahead of their implementation, still undefined)—all on results that must now sit up high and prominently on corporate accounting statements.
If their design is complicated, there is nonetheless a remarkable clarity of purpose to defined benefit pension plans, IMHO, and one need look no further than their name. The purpose of those traditional pension plans is imbedded in their very name—“defined benefit.’ By design, plan sponsors need to project the ultimate benefit to be paid—and then figure out a way to pay for that. They need to consider how long people will live and what their pay will be in the distant future, project potential investment returns, consider the interest rate environment, and how much money has already been put aside for that purpose. Defined contribution plans, on the other hand, define only the amount(s) being contributed, not that ultimate benefit. And yet, by near-unanimous acclamation, the “results’ of these programs—the benefits they provide—will define the financial security of our retirement.
Much of the impetus for the enactment of the PPA—and in no small part, many of the potentially draconian funding and reporting requirements contained therein—was the product of concerns that the benefits promised were not being adequately funded, and that, ultimately, those commitments would be “dumped’ on the federal government (in the form of the nation’s private pension insurer, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). Those PPA-imposed strictures, in turn, have led a growing number of employers (though by no means as many as the headlines would lead one to believe) to rethink those commitments.
One can only wonder what might happen if we were to impose on individual workers and their defined contribution plans what we have already imposed on those defined benefit programs…a funding requirement sufficient to provide a promised benefit, rather than simply restricting how much money can be contributed to these programs.
What if we began—with the end in mind?

Advisers to Shift From Traditional Investment Vehicles

Fewer than two advisers in 10 anticipate increasing their use of open-end mutual funds and mutual funds' share of the product pie will drop from 35% to 31%, according to Cogent Research.

In fact, fewer than two advisers in 10 anticipate increasing their use of open-end mutual funds and the mutual fund share of the product pie will drop from 35% to 31%, Cogent Research said, in a press release about the study. On average, advisers say they will remain loyal to six primary mutual fund providers and that the two mutual fund providers most used today, American Funds and Franklin Templeton, will maintain their market share at the end of 2009.

Advisers are expanding their use of various investments, searching for the best vehicles for individual client needs while also enhancing their own revenue channels by buying and recommending investment products that serve clients well and can be executed within the growing fee-based environment. Fees based on AUM will comprise the majority of income for most advisers, Cogent predicts, and this will influence their product selection. However, the trend of increasing the use of more sophisticated products, which might be a better fit for a complex client need, is tempered by the ability of the adviser to explain these complex products to clients.

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Products expected to see the most dramatic increase in market share resulting from this movement away from traditional mutual funds include separately managed accounts (SMAs) and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) due to their tailored asset management features and ability to allow investors to allocate across sectors and indexes. ETF growth is being driven by specialized use among advisers focused on wealth management.

Investments that will not see significant growth include closed-end funds, hedge funds, and variable annuities. Closed-end funds, although they will continue to have their niche appear to some advisers, will only occupy a small segment of adviser AUM. Hedge fund use will also remain limited. Variable annuities will not see much growth in the market either, but Cogent contends this will be a result of existing adviser compensation structure and negative perceptions and not resulting from product attributes – despite an environment that should favor their features.

“Advisers are in a unique position to not only observe and evaluate trends in asset management products and accounts, but also to gauge their clients’ evolving receptivity to traditional versus new investment options. The actions of advisers show a marked, definitive shift in product selection in the coming two years,’ according to Bruce Harrington, managing director, Cogent Research. “How can financial services companies respond to these clear needs by advisers? Improve loyalty ratings. Build brand. Increase innovation and communicate greater product differentiation. Advisers will respond to those firms and products that can execute on these themes.’

The Advisor Product Forecast was conducted between September 21 and October 30, 2007 and surveyed a representative cross section of 1,266 U.S.-based advisers, each with an active book of business of at least $1 million, and who offer investment advice or planning services to clients on a fee or transactional basis. The product spectrum researched included: open-end mutual funds, closed-end funds, SMAs, ETFs, fixed and variable annuities, individual securities, fixed index annuities, hedge funds, and life insurance.

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